OH-Sen: Recommended reading

Dave Sirota has a very interesting article about the relative strengths and weaknesses of Sherrod Brown and Paul Hackett in various election scenarios: Divvying Up Ohio. [CBS/Prospect]

Dave concludes that Brown would have a better chance of beating DeWine in the general election. Brown's biggest advantages are financial and institutional. He has more cash on hand, friends in organized labor, and all the connections of a seven-term Congressman.

Note that the strongest pro-Brown arguments assume that his advantages are completely non-transferrable. For example, Brown has deeper connections to labor, but presumably Ohio's unions would back Hackett if Brown weren't running.

Comments

[Eli]

Sirota's coverage of the Hackett/Brown race has been a little disconcerting to me. There's just this air of his conclusion having maybe preceded his arguments...

[Squashed Lemon]

Money argument:

Okay brown, having been a seven term congressman has $2M,

Hackette raise $1M, in that single race alone. The newbie hackette can raise half the money of a 7 term congressman? If that doesn't say anything about his money raising ability I don't know what.

If I have to judge, Brown is a loser, he doesn't excite the base enough to make people run and donate $20 bucks. In a high burn rate media campaign Brown will die of fund suffocation. Brown gonna use LOTS and LOTS of cash to raise more cash to win. (ie. his 'sexiness factor' is about as high as a wet sock. )

Also, brown doesn't seem too connected to younger crowd. He is very established. But I could be wrong, somebody need to hunt the stat.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/07/opinion/main927387.shtml

[Squashed Lemon]

I seriously think Hackette should run and let Brown burns himself in the primary.

He wants a distructive hard slog, be it. (I personally think he gonna chicken out if hackette stays.)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/10/103448/61

[Squashed Lemon]

btw, peeps. There is a dkos straw poll.

Beating DeWine - with poll

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/10/123145/11

[Squashed Lemon]

Also, can somebody explain to me why Sirota is pugging Brown? Is he on his payroll?

From his argument in CBS article. It's fairly lame. (Don't have the time to take it apart one by one. but it's definitely weak arguments)

In place where Hackette clearly wins, he put advantage: none.

[Constantine]

I think the reasoning, at its base, is that Brown will win "by default" in a race with DeWine. Voters think, "Republicans in Ohio are corrupt. I don't want them. This Brown guy is familiar, and he's a Democrat; I'll vote for him." By contrast, a race with Hackett becomes more of a "Hackett vs. DeWine" race in which two competing personalities duke it out, and voters choose DeWine "by default" in terms of, "I know this DeWine guy, Hackett is unfamiliar and therefore risky."

[Nell]

I work in an office with an Ohio native and political pro. His case for Brown is not just based on the money and labor ties, but on Brown's having held statewide office before, with the resulting huge advantage over Hackett in name recognition.

He also feels, and I think this is a clinching argument, that the Senate is not the place for an unproven quantity. As a Congressman, fine; as a Senator, no way. Given the length of the terms and the expense and commitment the race will take, that counts for a lot.

If Hackett hadn't had the impact he had in the special election, and hadn't been willing to entertain the Senate race, it's not clear that Sherrod Brown would have declared. Now that he has, I hope to hell Hackett will get out there and use his counter-stereotypical appeal on behalf of Brown in the red-purple parts of the state. And that the state party finds a way to reward him for both of those contributions to retaking the state.

[Nell]

Squashed Lemon: I personally think he gonna chicken out if hackette stays.

The word in Ohio political circles is otherwise.

It's not about who's a chicken, SL; it's about how the Ohio Democrats can best make use of their resources in 2006 to make the most progress at retaking the state. One of the delaying factors in Brown's decision was securing a strong Congressional candidate to replace himself.