Bush approval in 2005

This graph is part of an original analysis by Charles Franklin, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin blogging at Political Arithmetik.

Based on polls through 11/9, I estimate the Katrina effect as -1.26% and the post-indictment shock to approval as an additional -1.88%. The post-indictment effects include effects of other events of the same week, namely the 2000th U.S. troop death in Iraq, the withdrawal of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination, and the subsequent nomination of Judge Samuel Alito. It is not possible to statistically separate the effects of each of these events, so the -1.88% estimate should NOT be interpreted as the effect of the Libby indictment alone but rather the cummulative impact of all these events.

Charles will be updating this information regularly.

Here is his graph of Bush approval rating 2001-present. This graph will also be updated frequently.

Hat tip to Thoughts from Kansas.

Comments

[Steve Brady]

Check out Professor Pollkatz. Lots of good stuff, including a comparison to gas prices.

[rob helpy-chalk]

The best graph I saw on my brief visit was the comparisons of presidents since FDR. It shows that W's decline looks more like the steady drop of presidents like Carter or LBJ than people who had sudden falls like Nixon or the elder Bush.

[Matt McIrvin]

And, if I recall correctly, JFK, though he was killed before it could drop too low.

I actually think Kennedy's approval trajectory was the closest to Bush's during his first term; except that Bush came in with a deeply divided country and went into the stratosphere after Sept. 11, 2001, whereas JFK came in with enormous popularity and I've never entirely been able to figure out why (especially given what a squeaker his election was). After an initial honeymoon period his approval started dropping at about the same linear rate as Bush's, except that he got a boost post-Cuban Missile Crisis that was about the same as what Bush got from invading Iraq. When he was assassinated, Kennedy was starting to become something more like a fifty-fifty president.

If this means anything, I'm not sure what it is, but it struck me as an odd coincidence when I noticed it on Pollkatz long ago (in a graph that I think Gallup made him take down).

[Matt McIrvin]

Kennedy was starting to become something more like a fifty-fifty president

...well, OK, more like sixty-forty, as I see looking from this new chart.

[Gotham Image]

That is an excellent chart for illustrative purposes - my guess from polling data historically is that Bush's solid bas was always between 29-33 perecent - politically he is in trouble when he dips below 50 percent, but crisis occurs when it falls below the 29-33 level. Also, it's important that Bush's numbers fall for the right reason, not because people becomee more liberal or because the infation or unemployment rate go up. Those things are all arguable - it's important that Bush's numbers drop for the right reason - people accept the fact that he has not been honest or trusttworth. Trust is the coin of the realm. Until Bush's pockets are full of lint, work goes on.

[Steve Brady]

Cheney's last approval rating was 19%. I think that's a good estimate of the solid, never-give-up Bush base.

That's also fewer Americans than think that the sun revolves around the earth, or that aliens have secretly contacted our government.

[Matt McIrvin]

As always, it also helps fight the myth that Reagan was a uniquely or even unusually popular president, an impression we get mostly from the way he sailed through reelection against a weak opponent at the absolute apex of his popularity, and from the adulation he gets from his base. On the whole, Reagan's popularity was quite comparable to Bill Clinton's, and Clinton went higher and was less hurt by his big second-term scandal.

[Squashed Lemon]

This is some nice picture for weekend. somebody plots Susa survey onto map. Bush is killing GOP. And he is not even a year into his second term.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/11/18/91619/117