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November 09, 2005

Election recap

Jon Corzine wins New Jersey:

GOVERNOR
Jon Corzine (D) 54%
Dough Forrester (R) 43%
95% of precints reporting
[WaPo]

Tim Kaine beats Jerry Kilgore in Virginia:

GOVERNOR
Timothy M. Kaine (D) 52%
Jerry W. Kilgore (R) 46%
H. Russell Potts Jr. (I) 2%
99% of precincts reporting
[WaPo]

California voters reject all 8 ballot iniatives.

The Dover electorate puts its foot down and sweeps the Intelligent Design boosters from the school board. ID will be removed from the Dover science curriculum and relegated to comparative religion classes where it belongs.

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Comments

I am particularly glad that Gilmore lost. I live in Maryland, near the VA border. We were bombared with his transparently dishonest smear campaign. It is pretty much a consensus that he went so far over the top that he provoked a backlash.

What I find truly encouraging is that the outgoing governer, Mark Warner, had a nearly 80% approval rating after a fairly large (and much needed) tax increase. People can tolerate, even approve, of necessary taxation if the government spending it is responsible.

Does anyone know if it is true that Warner might be thinking about a 2008 Presidential bid?

And as far as California goes, these intiatives were so bad and transparent, even my fellow Golden Staters were able to see them as the cheap political hackery they were.

I will say, though, that reapportionment reform is something we need. The maps drawn in 2000 were horrible, and in clear violation of the letter of the law in California.

mojo sends

Warner's too old.

While PA rejected the ID folks, Kansas has embraced them.

Also - Njorl: I live in MD and work in VA. It _has_ really been a crazy time around here.

Are things really all sunshine and roses this election though? Reform measures lost in Ohio, and democrats lost the Mayor's race in NYC. I haven't been following either of these so I don't know how big a deal they are. I'm just wondering.

In NYC, Freddy Ferrer, frankly, got what was coming to him. He's a machine-produced hack who never really accomplished anything. Bloomberg, very frankly, is not a Republican. He emphasized that he gave more money to Clinton than he did to Bush. He's quite competant and I'm satisfied to have him as my mayor over ferrer. It might make for 4 straight republican administrations, but it is a little disingenuous to think of bloomberg continuing the legacy of guiliani (thankfully).

As a lifelong (until this election) New Jersey voter, this is where the really interesting stuff begins. My dark horse is Rush Holt (PHD in physics, scientist, state department arms control specialist, on the intellegence committee, liberal, and five-time jeopardy champion), though Codey or Menendez (maybe Andrews) are the most likely.

The decision needs to be made with the top tier GOP candidate in mind. Tom Kean Jr. (yes, moderate son of 9/11 comission chairman and immensely popular governor).

"Does anyone know if it is true that Warner might be thinking about a 2008 Presidential bid?"

There might be ten minutes each day he thinks about something else.

"Warner's too old. "

Other Warner from VA, or were you being sarcastic. He looks like he's 29.


What I hear is that Warner will run against Allen for the senate in '06. The winner will almost certainly make a presidential run.

Warner is quite unusual in that he is a democrat who believes that working with republicans does not mean letting them have everything they want. He would make a good "national healing" president. Unfortunately, I don't think healing is what we'll need in 2008. What we'll need is CPR.

Woohoo, a little bit of good news from the political landscape. Who would've thunk it?

In NYC, Freddy Ferrer, frankly, got what was coming to him. He's a machine-produced hack who never really accomplished anything. Bloomberg, very frankly, is not a Republican. He emphasized that he gave more money to Clinton than he did to Bush. He's quite competant and I'm satisfied to have him as my mayor over ferrer.

I'm pretty much with you, BF. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Bloomberg--bringing the RNC to town last year and stumping for the idiotic West Side football stadium were both deal-breakers for me--but I'm hardly in mourning today. To hear the NYTimes tell, Bloomberg's got some pretty big plans in the offing with respect to low- & moderate-income housing construction, and instituting London-style "congestion pricing" to lower the amount of traffic into Manhattan (one of my pet issues). Lord knows we could do worse. And maybe, having lost 3 mayoral races in a row, the Democratic machine in this city will finally start to confront its utter decrepitude....

I studied comparative religion...ID doesn't have a place there either. Unless, of course, one were taking a "New Religious Movements" course.

The Libs are making way too much of the fact that the Democrats held on the Governorships in NJ and VA. It's not a big deal.

The fact that the Democrats have lost four consecutive mayoral elections in knee-jerk New York City, now that's a man-bites-dog story. There's a bit more political common sense in New York City than meets the eye.

Oh my, Rethuglicans and their "rigged" voting machines are falling down on the job. What is politics in this country coming to?

Well, the accomplishment wasn't really in holding NJ and VA, it was in winning them by 11 and 6 points respectively. The AG and LG spots in VA were much closer than expected.

BF

Yes, it certainly was a good night, but you'd have thought that the Democrats had just taken two seat that had been Republican for a century or two, the way the media was carrying on.

The Republicans should watch these tea leaves closely, but the Democrats are misreading this too, and patting themselves on the back a bit too much.

The GOP did hold the governorship and both houses for most of the 1990s in NJ. While it is a pretty solid blue state, it can swing GOP (the northeasten style) quite easily. Forrester was slaughtering Torricelli in 02 until they pulled him and substituted Lautenberg.

About one year ago, the Dems were operating from a position of weakness. Scandal-ridden McGreevy leaves office (denying a special election), bunch of indictments, a politically unsavvy plutocrat perceived to have bought the nomination, etc. Corzine outspent Bob Franks in 2000 12-1 and only won by 7 points. True, the GOP didn't get the best candidate either, but this was their election to take advantage of.

Corzine, who is equally or more liberal than Kerry, did better against a more moderate candidate, than Kerry did against Bush. (7 pts vs. 11 pts). Turnout in GOP strongholds was lower than expected.

That said, I agree with you. NJ is hardly a proxy for the rest of the country. At this point, I'm quite happy when the Dems don't commit egregious fuck-ups, which is the direction in which they were heading in NJ (and still are, if Corzine picks Menendez to replace him). In VA on the other hand, the part was operating from a position of stregnth and carried it though.

very modest gains in the state legislatures, which makes the case for the "no-big-deal" crowd.

If you're looking for an equally unrepresentative election, but obvious retribution for supporting bush, check out the St. Paul mayoral race.

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