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November 03, 2008

The line for Obama nomination rally


A picture from the DNC.

Delegates and the general public lining up for buses that will take them to Mile High Stadium to watch Barack Obama accept the Democratic nomination.


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I looked at the original size photo. This gave me an impression (subjective, of course) of what was going on in the picture. So I thought I would title it, "Pending."

Nice shot.

Good photo

But this thing is not over. Your friend may well lose Pennsylvania and Ohio and if that happens the election likely goes to McCain

I'd go even further: if more people cast their votes for McCain than Obama, and (especially) if McCain wins more electors in the Electoral College, I still think you could see McCain pull this one out. The evidence is against such a possibility, of course. But seeing as most voters haven't yet cast their votes, and we don't know the results of the voting that's already gone on, it remains a possibility.

Don't know if you were joking, but I see a real possibility of Obama winning a big popular vote plurality, with big margins in NY and CA, etc, but with McCain pulling a series of state wins that give him an electoral college win.

ie- 2000 all over again. Hopefully without the drama and the hanging chads

I hate the Electoral College and think its stupid, but it is the system we have.

McCain's trailing by eight points in Pennsylvania, his must-win state. He's also significantly behind in Ohio.

The Republicans don't have nearly the GOTV infrastructure that the Democrats do.

So, I'm not feeling complacent about this by any means, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

Phantom, Obama's up by 7.6 in Pennsylvania. The only ways he loses are if:

1) The margin of error (1.37) beats Obama's lead. The probability of that happening is about 1 in 70 million.

2) The Bradley effect is significant. It hasn't been in any election in the last fifteen years, it wasn't in the primary, and judging by all the "We're voting for the nigger" comments, it won't be in the general.

3) All the polls have biased samples. This happens rarely - in the primaries, it only happened in the New Hampshire Dem contest. For what it's worth, any sample bias is likely to be in the other direction: many pollsters exclude cellphone-only voters, and the likely voter screens sometime exclude first-time voters even when there's no reason to think they're less likely to vote.

4) McCain's ground game can beat the polls. 538's On the Road series shows that on the contrary, McCain ground offices usually close early, and often only have one or two people making phone calls when they are open.

The polls will not be able to capture the impact or lack of same from the recently revealed ( on a national scale ) comments by Obama against coal.

This could be one of a series of self-inflicted wounds by Obama/Murtha in Western PA.

--"We're voting for the nigger" comments--

Huh? Who said that?

White people in Appalachia, on several separate occasions, when visited by Obama volunteers.

As for Obama on coal, I have no idea what he said. But if you think it swings eight points, you're delusional. McCain's incoherent remarks about the economy during the financial crisis were worth about two or three points for Obama.

We'll see

See this

In some parts of the country, still, when you attack coal you attack peoples livelihood

And this comes after Biden's anti coal comment a while back.

We'll see.

I sometimes wonder how these folks who routinely post Republican spin keep themselves from getting dizzy. Spinning, spinning, all the time. No time to be still and human.

Its the mans own recorded words, chief. No spin necessary

Following Jesse Taylor's revelations of the other day ( plus the resurrection of Rev. Wright last evening, I believe this marks the 37th "Oh-my-God-this-is-going-to-change-everything!!" moment of the 2008 election.

In some parts of the country, still, when you attack coal you attack peoples livelihood

And in others, when during a big meltdown you say the fundamentals of the economy are sound, you attack people's livelihood, too.

In some parts of the country, still, when you attack coal you attack peoples livelihood.

What parts of the country are those? According to the National Mining Association, Ohio (population 11,400,000) employs 10,000 people in the coal mining industry. Pennsylvania (population 12,400,000) employs 20,000 in the industry. The percentage of miners is way less than the percentage of Obama's lead in those states.

Its not just the guys who work in the mines. Its the people who sell things to them to the mining company. Its the railroad workers or truckers who haul the stuff out of there.

And its the people who work at or who are connected to the utilities who use coal as fuel. And those who buy electricity from those utilities, whose energy bills would go up by a lot if coal were banned or restricted.

Despite automation and alternate fuels, coal remains very important throughout the midwest and PA, WV, OH


Not just the electric utilities

There is still a substantial steelmaking presence in PA, OH, and IN. Smaller workforce than it once was, but still very important if you are in those towns.

These steel mills all burn coal.

Hey- 50% of the American electrical grid is powered by coal, too! Most people in America still operate toasters or ceiling lamps that are at least in part powered by coal. (Do YOU want to have to brown your English muffins in the fireplace?) Wait til they all hear about this!

Then there's the coal-carrying railroad car-building industry, the mudflap and CB radio-manufacturing industries, the steam-powered tourist-train operators, the Victorian Age re-enactors... and I bet few of those of people even learned until last night that Obama was a Negro, or that his former preacher said "God damn America"! Its gonna be a McCain LANDSLIDE!!

Alon - the Bradley effect isn't real. It's a excuse for some bad polling. Details.

Don't forget the "reverse Bradley effect"- the 101% North Korean numbers that Obama is getting in the black community.

Alon - the Bradley effect isn't real. It's a excuse for some bad polling.

I know. I did my best to give a short overview of the evidence against it in my comment.

Its not just the guys who work in the mines. Its the people who sell things to them to the mining company. Its the railroad workers or truckers who haul the stuff out of there.

What you're saying is that there is a multiplier effect - the 20,000 coal workers in Pennsylvania generate additional jobs. This is true, but the effect is too small to count. Writing about resource extraction in the Interior West, Joel Garreau quoted a pro-drilling activist as estimating a multiplier of 3, which gives 60,000 coal-related workers in Pennsylvania, and 30,000 in Ohio.

Mind you, many of these would have already jumped ship when Biden said he was against clean coal. Personally, I think clean coal and tax cuts for the middle class are the first two promises Obama will jettison, and I'm hardly the only one.


One-half hour ago CNN reported, "Barack Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died following a bout with cancer. She was 86. Obama, who spoke about his grandmother often on the stump, left the campaign trail for two days in late October to visit Dunham in Hawaii. "She has gone home," Obama said at a rally today."

As a father and grandfather, myself, I am trying to grasp the notion that one of my own has attained the stature of a national figure, and possibly the presidency of our country. As proud as I am of my own children and their families, I can't quite get my arms around the idea. Her feelings about her own daughter and grandson must be beyond something special.

She and her grandson were blessed to have been together just a short time ago. I can only imagine how proud she was. Would that we all had family that loved and encouraged as much as she. Bless you and your family.

Canada will be celebrating tomorrow, as will many other countries.

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